Previsión meteorológica para Caracas y Región Capital del 12 de octubre de 2011

Período de validez: desde las 12:00 m. HLV del día 12 de octubre, hasta las 12:00 m. HLV del día 13 de octubre de 2011.
Área pronosticada: Distrito Capital y estados de Miranda y Vargas, Venezuela.
Hora de publicación: 9:00 a.m. HLV (13:30 UTC).


Situación meteorológica general:

En la primera imagen disponible del canal visible (ch1), obtenida del satélite meteorológico GOES-13 (EAST), de las 6:15 a.m. HLV (10:45 UTC), del 12 de octubre de 2011, se aprecia al territorio de Venezuela con cielos mayormente cubiertos por nubosidad residual en múltiples capas de origen convectivo, excepto por el cuadrante nordeste (norte de Anzoátegui, norte de Monagas, Sucre, Nueva Esparta y norte de Delta Amacuro, donde prevalecen cielos mayormente despejados. Están presentes sistemas celulares de nubes de tormenta, productoras de chaparrones y acompañadas de aparato eléctrico, sobre el golfo de Venezuela, lago de Maracaibo, costa sur del Zulia, Trujillo, costa oriental de Falcón, Cojedes, Miranda, Vargas, este de Apure, sur de Amazonas y sur de Bolívar. 

Pronóstico meteorológico:  Hoy, miércoles, intervalos de lluvias débiles.

En horas de la tarde, se esperan intervalos nubosos debido a la presencia de nubes de evolución que pueden producir lluvias débiles (1-2 mm) dispersas, en particular durante la primera mitad del lapso. Durante la noche, aún serán posibles eventos de precipitaciones débiles (1 mm), de aisladas a dispersas, en Miranda y el Distrito Capital. 

En el transcurso de la madrugada del jueves 13, la inestabilidad convectiva reinante favorecerá la presencia de nubes de evolución que producirán chubascos dispersos (1-2 mm) en las costas de Miranda y este de Vargas. Para el amanecer y primeras horas de la  mañana se intensificarán los eventos de chaparrón sobre las costas de Miranda, incluso en Vargas, cuando se registren chaparrones de hasta moderada intensidad (1-4 mm). Para el mediodía, se espera que las precipitaciones remitan, aunque prevalecerán cielos de parcial a nublados. 

Discusión sinóptica para Venezuela:

El tránsito de la onda tropical Nº 38 (cada vez más difícil de rastrear) por el Caribe Oriental y costas centrales de Venezuela, interactuando positivamente con la convergencia intertropical de los alisios (ITCZ-NET),  favorece significativa convergencia de los alisios del nordeste cargados de humedad (TPW: 50-60 mm). El occidente del país sigue muy inestable bajo la influencia de la vaguada monzónica, que penetra por el norte del estado de Zulia. 

En altura, 200-250 hPa, persiste patrón de vaguada-dorsal-vaguada sobre el Caribe. Esta configuración sinóptica esta induciendo fuerte divergencia sobre La Española, oeste y sur (en  particular en Bolívar) de Venezuela, Colombia y las Guayanas. 

Venezuela, imagen visible (ch1), GOES EAST. 6:15 HLV, 12oct2011.

Depresión tropical DOCE-E:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 93.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...10 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE MEXICAN
STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

Depresión tropical DOCE-E. Imagen visible (ch1), GOES.

Tormenta tropical Jova:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A MAJOR
THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 104.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO MEXICO TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST.
JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
JOVA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JOVA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  THESE SWELLS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Tormenta tropical Jova. Imagen visble (ch1), GOES.